[10/25/24]The S&P 500 has jumped 22% so far this year.

Many investors are trying to figure out what impact the presidential election will have on stocks. Looking back at prior elections provides helpful context.

Let’s start with George W. Bush’s victory in 2000. The S&P 500 fell 13% in 2001 and 23% in 2002. But it’s hard to blame that on Bush.

Stocks already were sliding in 2000 as the dot.com bubble began to burst. Bill Clinton caught the right end of the economic cycle in 1993-2000, and Bush caught the wrong end.

But then Bush benefited from the inevitable economic rebound. His tax cuts helped drive it, though they also widened...

• The S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1%, with the Nasdaq-100 index down 2.6%. Yet, the Dow had a small gain, and the small-cap Russell jumped 3.5% as investors pushed money to non-tech investments.
• The major averages are no longer overbought but, rather, oversold. A key indicator...

[1/7/24]It's fair to say there was surprise, nay, disappointment that the great 2023 end-of-year rally ended, well, at the end of 2023.

The major averages all fell in the first week of January, with big technology stocks absorbing some of the biggest declines after investors were cheered by a huge nine-week rally and hoped for continued gains ahead.

The declines began to emerge on Dec. 29, after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index  (^IN)  came close to -- but failed -- to set a new all-time high. At the time, most of the major averages had been signalling the market was overbought.

Maybe the gains will start up again. One...