U.S. Budget Deficit Rose in July, but 8-Year Low Is Expected for Year

[08/12/15]  The United States government ran a much higher budget deficit in July than a year ago, but it is still on track for the lowest full-year deficit in eight years.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the July deficit totaled $149.2 billion, compared with a deficit of $94.6 billion a year earlier. The deterioration stemmed mainly from the fact that Aug. 1 fell on a Saturday. As a result, the government paid out $42 billion in August benefits in late July instead.

Through the first 10 months of this budget year, the deficit stood at $465.5 billion, 1.1 percent higher than a year ago. The outlook for the full year looks more promising. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the year-end total will drop to around $425 billion, making it the lowest deficit since 2007.

The expected improvement this year reflects a strengthening economy, with tax revenue rising as more people find jobs and the government pays out less in unemployment benefits.

Also Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that employers filled more of their available jobs in June, evidence that steady if modest economic growth is putting more Americans to work. Total hiring rose 2.3 percent to 5.18 million in June, the most in six months and second-highest total since the recession ended in June 2009.

Employers posted fewer job openings, but that figure has risen strongly in the last year. And more people quit their jobs, which is a good sign because many people quit when they have new jobs lined up, typically at higher pay. More hiring, quitting and healthy levels of job openings could pressure companies to lift wages.

Hiring and quitting “remain at levels consistent with a pickup in wage growth over the medium-term,” said Jeremy Schwartz, an analyst at Credit Suisse.

The United States deficit last year dropped to $483.3 billion from $679.5 billion in 2013. For the four years before 2013, the deficit was above $1 trillion as a deep recession cut into revenue and expanded spending on programs like unemployment benefits.

Through the first 10 months of this budget year, tax revenue totaled $2.67 billion, an increase of 8 percent over the same period in 2014. Spending is up 6.9 percent to $3.14 trillion.

The huge deficits in the aftermath of the worst recession since the 1930s drove the national debt higher. It currently stands at $18.1 trillion, right below the current debt limit.

Since March, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has been employing emergency measures to keep the government operating without going over the current limit while appealing to Congress to increase the debt limit.

In a letter to Congress this month, Mr. Lew said he expected to have enough maneuvering room to keep the government operating until late October or early November. If lawmakers are not able to agree on at least a stopgap financing measure by then, the government would face the prospect of a shutdown. The last such stalemate occurred in October 2013, when there was a 16-day partial government shutdown.

Publisher:  The Associated Press and New York Times

Link:  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/13/business/economy/us-budget-deficit-rose-in-july-but-8-year-low-is-expected-for-year.html?ref=economy&_r=0

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